Long- and short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka

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Statistical short-term earthquake prediction.

A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitu...

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Short-term Exciting, Long-term Correcting Models for Earthquake Catalogs

A class of probability models for earthquake occurrences, called shortterm exciting, long-term correcting (SELC) models, is presented. This class encompasses features of two different classes of models presently used in hazard analysis to characterize earthquake catalogs: (1) self-exciting models and (2) self-correcting models. It offers the potential for a unified approach to the analysis and ...

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Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California and Nevada

We present estimates of future earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) on a 0.1degree grid for a region including California and Nevada, based only on data from past earthquakes. Our long-term forecast is not explicitly time-dependent, but it can be updated at any time to incorporate information from recent earthquakes. The present version, founded on several de...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Tectonophysics

سال: 1977

ISSN: 0040-1951

DOI: 10.1016/0040-1951(77)90054-3